Reduced Risks of Temperature Extremes From 0.5°C less Global Warming in the Earth's Three Poles

Abstract

Abstract Future projection of temperature extremes in the “Earth's three poles” (the Arctic, Antarctica, and Third Pole‐Tibetan Plateau [TP]) is of importance to risk assessment and policymaking owing to the high sensitivity to climate change in these regions. In this study, future projections of four extreme temperature indices were constructed after the application of a bias correction method in models of Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). The reduced intensification of temperature extremes in the Earth's three poles if warming can be limited to 1.5°C instead of 2°C above the pre‐industrial level was examined. Results showed that all the extreme temperature indices show significant increasing trends under both the SSP2–4.5 and SSP5–8.5 scenarios over the Earth's three poles (SSP: Shared Socioeconomic Pathway). For the coldest night (TNn), warmest night (TNx), and warmest day (TXx), the greatest increase by the end of the 21st century under SSP5–8.5 occurs in the Arctic, followed by the TP and finally Antarctica. For the coldest day (TXn), the greatest increase occurs in the Arctic, followed by Antarctica and finally the TP. If global warming can be limited to 1.5°C rather than 2°C, the intensification of TNn, TNx, TXn, and TXx in the Arctic (Antarctica/TP) under SSP5–8.5 is projected to reduce by 66% (21.7%/44.26%), 50.31% (54.79%/60.52%), 71.58% (12.91%/65.81%), and 41.73% (81.3%/57.34%), respectively, and the results are similar for SSP2–4.5. Therefore, keeping a lower warming target is essential for reducing the risk of extreme events in the Earth's three poles.