Assessing Long-Term Lake Dynamics in Response to Climatic Variability: A Comprehensive Statistical Analysis

Abstract

This comprehensive study delves into the intricate relationship between climatic factors and the dynamic changes in lakes across the Kerch Peninsula. By analyzing annual mean temperature, annual mean precipitation, and their impact on lake area, this research uncovers significant insights. Key findings include a strong inverse correlation between rising annual mean temperature and reductions in the lake area. With every 1-degree Celsius increase in temperature, the average lake area decreases by 0.302 square kilometers. The analysis indicates higher temperatures are consistently associated with diminishing lake areas, a trend commonly observed in water bodies. While annual precipitation also influences lake areas, the effect is less pronounced, with a correlation coefficient of 0.141, signifying a positive connection between the two variables. Temporal analysis reveals climate impact exhibits a one-year time lag, meaning changes in the current year’s climate manifest in alterations in lake areas in the subsequent year. Generalized Additive Models provide further insights, emphasizing the complex, non-linear nature of the relationship between climatic factors and lake areas. Pseudo-R2 values for lakes on the Kerch Peninsula range from 0.0913 to 0.2769, indicating the proportion of variability in lake area explained by the models. These values emphasize the significance of essential factors, though some unexplained variability remains. In summary, this research highlights the critical role of climate factors in shaping the dynamics of lakes in the Kerch Peninsula. The findings underscore the need for continued monitoring and adaptive management to address the multifaceted challenges posed by climate change and other contributing factors in this region.

Keywords

• climate change
• GAM
• Kerch Peninsula
• statistical analysis
• lakes