Modeling of the influence of local climatic features on the functionality of the cryolithozone road network in the conditions of global warming

Abstract

The road network of the cryolithozone of Russia, operated in conditions of ongoing climate change. To quantify the expected negative consequences of the degradation of permafrost soils at the base of the road network, taking into account the local climatic characteristics of Yakutsk, Susuman and Urengoy. Simulation modeling of the processes of propagation in the soil of the road profile of thermal energy delivered jointly by both ambient air (convective heat exchange) and solar radiation in the surface layer (radiation heating). The magnitude of climate risks is estimated on the basis of soil precipitation at the base of the road network caused by additional thawing under the influence of global warming. New data on the state of the road network as the most important element of the regional road transport system in the conditions of climate change have been obtained.The predicted value of additional soil precipitation at the base of roads with warming up to 2 degrees, determined without taking into account the incoming solar radiation into the ground, is: for dry sandy soils 0.7-0.9 cm, for wet clay soils 2.2-2.6 cm. Taking into account the influence of solar radiation, the predicted precipitation increases: in sandy soil up to 1.6-1.8 cm, in clay soil up to 4.7-5.5 cm. Solar radiation entering the ground also leads to a pronounced asymmetry of precipitation within the road profile, which is, at different points of the profile, from 23% to 30%. The predicted risks of disruption of the functionality of the road network located on clay permafrost soils on a 1000-point scale are 450 points for the climatic conditions of Susuman and Yakutsk, and 400 points for Urengoy. For all three territories considered, the influence of solar radiation on the value of road profile sediment is significant, in its influence comparable to the effect of an increase in surface air temperature by a value of 2 degrees. Taking into account the effect of solar radiation entering the ground leads to a significant increase in the risks expected as a result of climate warming, and transfers them from a low level to an average level.

Keywords

• road network
• cryolithozone
• climate change
• modeling
• transport system