Investigating the Impact of Climate Change on Extreme Temperature and Precipitation in the Sefidrood Basin Based on CMIP6 Models

Abstract

In the present study, the impact of climate change on maximum temperature and daily precipitation in 16 weather stations was investigated in the Sefidrood Basin from 2023 to 2052. 10 AOGCM models related to the sixth IPCC Assessment Report (CMIP6) were ranked based on their ability to simulate temperature and precipitation in the historical period (1980 to 2014). Then, the maximum temperature and daily precipitation outputs of the best model at each weather station were extracted using the LARS-WG downscaling model under three emission scenarios SSP126, SSP245, and SSP585 from 2023 to 2052. The Mann-Kendall test (95% confidence level) was also used to investigate the trend of changes in the average maximum temperature and maximum daily precipitation. The results showed that different AOGCMs have different accuracies in simulating temperature and precipitation in different regions of the basin, and their accuracies in simulating temperature were better than simulating precipitation. In general, the IPSL-CM6A-LR and HadGEM3-GC31-LL models had the best performance in simulating maximum temperature and precipitation, respectively. Results also indicated that the mean maximum temperature will increase between 0.9 and 2.8 °C in different emission scenarios. Also, the mean maximum daily precipitation will change between -8.6 and 7.17 mm in different emission scenarios.

Keywords

• climate change
• sefidrood basin
• extreme values
• aogcm model.