Spatial and Temporal Variability of Rainfall Trends in Response to Climate Change—A Case Study: Syria

Abstract

Recent climate changes have prompted changes in the hydrological cycle at a global scale, creating instability when predicting future climate conditions and related changes. Perturbations in global climate models have created the need to concentrate consequent changes in hydro climatic factors to comprehend the regional and territorial impacts of climate and environmental changes. Syria, as a Middle East country, is exposed to extreme climate events such as drought and flood. The aim of this study is to analyze rainfall trends in Syria in response to the likely climate change. The analysis was conducted for rainfall data collected from 71 stations distributed all over the country for the period (1991–2009). The trend analysis was performed in monthly and seasonal scales using Mann–Kendall non-parametric statistical tests. The results attained from Mann–Kendall trend analysis revealed decreasing trends at most of the stations. Additionally, rainfall analysis was conducted for the stations with significant trends for wet and dry periods, which also revealed decreasing trends at almost all the stations. From the analysis of the results, it is obvious that slight increasing trends in rainfall in Syria occurred in the fall period. However, in the winter and spring periods, significant decreasing trends have been observed at almost all the stations. This reveals that the country will suffer from shortage of water, because most rainfall occurs in the winter and spring, infrequently in fall and rarely in summer. The results are consistent with the IPCC’s fifth report that predicted a decrease in rainfall in the Mediterranean and southern Asia. The results of this paper could help the management of water resources in Syria considering future climate changes.

Keywords

• climate change
• rainfall trend analysis
• Mann–Kendall
• water scarcity
• Syria