Using Bayesian Deep Learning for Electric Vehicle Charging Station Load Forecasting

Abstract

In recent years, replacing internal combustion engine vehicles with electric vehicles has been a significant option for supporting reducing carbon emissions because of fossil fuel shortage and environmental contamination. However, the rapid growth of electric vehicles (EVs) can bring new and uncertain load conditions to the electric network. Precise load forecasting for EV charging stations becomes vital to reduce the negative influence on the grid. To this end, a novel day-ahead load forecasting method is proposed to forecast loads of EV charging stations with Bayesian deep learning techniques. The proposed methodological framework applies long short-term memory (LSTM) network combined with Bayesian probability theory to capture uncertainty in forecasting. Based on the actual operational data of the EV charging station collected on the Caltech campus, the experiment results show the superior performance of the proposed method compared with other methods, indicating significant potential for practical applications.

Keywords

• electric vehicle charging station
• load forecasting
• Bayesian deep learning
• long short-term memory (LSTM) network
• capture uncertainty