Spatial and Temporal Variation of Droughts in the Mongolian Plateau during 1959–2018 Based on the Gridded Self-Calibrating Palmer Drought Severity Index

Abstract

Drought monitoring is challenging, but it is required for improving agricultural production, protecting the ecological environment, and reducing economic losses in drought-prone regions such as the Mongolian Plateau (MP). This study is a systematic analysis of the spatiotemporal changes in the characteristics of drought events (drought duration, severity, intensity, frequency, peak, and starting season) at the sub-regional scale between 1959 and 2018 based on the run theory and using the gridded self-calibrating Palmer Drought Severity Index (scPDSI) dataset. Principal component analysis and Varimax rotation and the Mann–Kendall trend and Sen’s slope were used for the sub-regional division and drought trend analysis, respectively. In addition, wavelet analysis was employed to analyze drought periodicity and determine the influence of large-scale climate indices on regional drought variation. The study results indicate clear differences in the spatial patterns of drought characteristics in the MP. The northern part suffered from droughts with longer duration and higher severity, whereas more drought events with shorter duration and less severity occurred in the southern part. Most of the MP experienced a relatively wet trend in 1996–2018 compared to the period of 1959–1995. The frequency of spring drought events showed an increasing trend in 1996–2018, unlike in 1959–1995. Some drought events simultaneously affected two or several sub-regions. The wavelet analysis results indicated that the drought periodicity in the MP was 10–64 months. The Arctic Oscillation (Pacific Decadal Oscillation) was significantly correlated with drought in the southern (northern) part.

Keywords

• drought monitoring
• drought characteristics
• scPDSI
• run theory
• drought trend and periodicity
• Mongolian Plateau