The Effect of Environmental Factors on the Occurrence and Spread of Pest Des Petits Ruminants Disease in Markazi Province, Iran

Abstract

The prevalence of the Pest des petits ruminants (PPR) over the past ten years in Iran has resulted in devastating effects on the wild goat (Capra aegagrus) and mouflon (Ovis gmelini) populations, as well as small domestic ruminants. The aim of this study was to identify areas with high risk of PPR outbreak, determine the environmental and landscape factors affecting the spread of the disease, and identify the transmission corridors of the disease through the wild hosts of PPR virus in Markazi province. The risk of occurrence of PPR was mapped once in livestock and wildlife separately and also jointly for both groups using maximum entropy model. An electrical circuit model was used to identify migration corridors and evaluate the transmission of disease through the wild hosts of the PPR virus. The model performance index was calculated 0.727 for livestock, 0.997 for wild ruminants, and 0.849 for both groups. The results showed that precipitation of the wettest month was the most important variable affecting the prevalence of PPR. Potential migration corridors of wild sheep matched the areas where the risk of PPR occurrence was high. The results of the present study can be operative in developing effective methods to prevent the spread of this fatal disease in the country's wildlife.

Keywords

• landscape connectivity
• wildlife disease
• maximum entropy
• distribution modeling
• wild ruminants