Stochastic heuristics for decisions under risk and uncertainty

Abstract

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Models of heuristics are often predicated on the desideratum that they should possess no free parameters. As a result, heuristic implementations are usually deterministic and do not allow for any choice errors, as the latter would require a parameter to regulate the magnitude of errors. We discuss the implications of this in light of research that highlights the evidence supporting stochastic choice and its dependence on preferential strength. We argue that, in principle, the existing models of deterministic heuristics should, and can, be quite easily modified to stochastic counterparts through the addition of an error mechanism. This requires a single free parameter in the error mechanism, whilst otherwise retaining the parameter-free cognitive processes in the deterministic component of existing heuristics. We present various types of error mechanisms applicable to heuristics and discuss their comparative virtues and drawbacks, paying particular attention to their impact on model comparisons between heuristics and parameter-rich models.

Keywords

• errors
• decision making under risk and uncertainty
• model comparison
• stochastic heuristics
• bounded rationality