You-qi chuyun (Jan 2024)
Development space of China’s natural gas power generation industry from the perspective of power flexibility demand
Abstract
[Objective] As China is accelerating its construction of a new energy system, the role of natural gas power generation in supporting the future natural gas industry and power system is becoming increasingly prominent. However, the industry lacks a consensus on the future development space of natural gas power generation. A reasonable assessment of the development space of natural gas power generation will facilitate the construction of the new power system and the formulation of policies on natural gas power generation. [Methods] Based on the analysis of the advantages and disadvantages of various flexible peak shaving measures such as natural gas power generation, coal power flexibility transformation, pumped storage, new energy storage, and smart grid, the future development orientation of taking natural gas power generation industry as a flexibility resource on the power supply side to realize the peak shaving was determined. By applying various qualitative and quantitative methods such as the Delphi method and the learning curve method, prediction of the installed capacity of renewable energy power generation in China under different scenarios was carried out. The overall demand for power flexibility resources was obtained.The flexible peak shaving capabilities of coal power flexibility transformation, pumped storage, new energy storage, and other new energy storage technologies in the future were further studied. The future demand space of China's installed capacity of natural gas power generation was calculated. [Results] The forecast results show that China's power system requires approximately 14×108 kW, 27×108-28×108 kW and 37×108-40×108 kW of power flexibility resources in 2030, 2040, and 2060 respectively. As one of the power flexibility resources, natural gas power generation has a gradually expanding demand that is expected to reach approximately 1.6×108 kW, 2.2×108 kW in 2030, and a peak value of approximately 3×108-4×108 kW in 2050. [Conclusion] It is suggested to accurately find the orientation of the natural gas power generation industry, consider the coordinated development of the industry with natural gas consumption and renewable energy, and actively promote the improvement of market mechanisms, thus reflecting the value of the industry and effectively solving the dilemma of high carbon emission intensity and low capacities for independent research and development of core equipment.
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