Frequency and trend analyses of annual peak discharges in the Lower Mekong Basin

Abstract

The effectiveness of annual peak discharges under the anthropogenic impact and climate change has significance for disaster management and planning. Therefore, an attempt has been made to study the trend of annual maximum series (AMS) discharges and flood frequency in the Lower Mekong Basin (LMB). The AMS data of five stations in the LMB were procured from the Mekong River Commission for analyses of trends of the AMS and flood frequency. The Mann-Kendall test showed a significant decrease in the magnitude of annual peak floods for all the discharge gauging sites in the LMB. Likewise, the analysis of the annual discharge departure from the mean reveals noteworthy variations and departure (positive and negative) in the annual peak discharges. The goodness-of-fit (GoF) tests showed that Log-Pearson Type-III (LP-III) is the best distribution for AMS of the Mekong River than Gumbel Extreme Value Type-I (GEVI). Therefore, predicted discharges for different return periods and predicted recurrence intervals for average annual discharges (Qm), large floods (Qlf), and maximum annual peak discharge during the recording period (Qmax) by LP-III are trustworthy. The flood frequency curve specified that all the observed discharges were fairly on the best-fitted line and falls between upper and lower confidence limits. Inclusively, the results of the trend in annual peak discharges and flood frequency are consistent and can be used for water management, controlling flood disasters, and flood planning in the LMB.

Keywords

• Lower Mekong Basin
• Annual maximum series
• Trend analysis
• Goodness-of-fit
• Flood-frequency analysis