Spatial differences and driving mechanism of carbon-emission-sensitive human development index in Poyang Lake Basin

Abstract

[Objective] Reducing carbon emissions while continuously improving the level of human well-being is the core connotation of human development.This study analyzed the spatial differences and driving mechanism of carbon-emission-sensitive human development index in Poyang Lake Basin, in an attempt to provide a theoretical basis for promoting the level of human well-being under the dual-carbon goals. [Methods] By incorporating the per capita net carbon emission index, this study constructed the carbon-emission-sensitive human development index (CHDI). Spatial Markov chain, Dagum Gini coefficient, LMDI method, and spatial Durbin model were used to analyze the spatial difference change of carbon-emission-sensitive development index in Poyang Lake Basin from 1990 to 2020. [Results] (1) The carbon-emission-sensitive development index of the Poyang Lake Basin increased from 0.5415 in 1990 to 0.7922 in 2020, realizing the leap from medium human development level to high human development level. (2) From 1990 to 2020, the spatial differences of carbon-emission-sensitive human development index in Poyang Lake Basin tended to shrink as a whole, intra-sub-basin differences shrank steadily, and the differences between the sub-basins decreased first and then increased. Narrowing the gaps between the sub-basins is the key to alleviate the spatial differences of human development level in Poyang Lake Basin. (3) The improvement of carbon-emission-sensitive human development index in Poyang Lake Basin was mainly driven by economic effect and technology effect, while social effect and environmental effect showed declining trends. (4) The regression results of the spatial econometric model show that increasing affluence, upgrading industrial structure, increasing public financial expenditures, and urbanization had a significant contributing effect on the enhancement of human development level in the Poyang Lake Basin, urbanization had a contributing effect on the enhancement of CHDI both locally and in the neighboring counties, while increasing energy intensity and population density had significant negative effects. [Conclusion] From 1990 to 2020, the low-carbon human development in Poyang Lake Basin tended to be balanced in the process of moving towards high human development. Narrowing the differences between the sub-basins and strengthening the dual-wheel drive of economic and technological effects are the focal points to further promote the balanced development of human well-being in Poyang Lake Basin.

Keywords

• human development index|human well-being|dagum gini coefficient|spatial durbin model|net carbon emissions|poyang lake basin