Proof of concept - using prospective hybrid MFA-LCA to evaluate the environmental implications of Circular Economy using a case study of wood

Abstract

Consistent evaluations of impacts induced by implementation of Circular Economy (CE) design processes and solutions within the built environment, necessitates decision-support tool development/advancement, as CE does not allow for business-as-usual assessments only. A preliminary test of concept that seeks to quantify the environmental implications of CE on a case study of wood, is presented here. The core methodology is based on coupling of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) with Material Flow Analysis (MFA) and consequential Life Cycle Assessment (cLCA). Applying this novel approach, a prospective consequential hybrid MFA-LCA analysis was initiated, to evaluate the mitigation challenges of CE design processes, through different formalized and generally accepted (i.e. consensus) scenarios. The case study is based on Danish reference buildings, meeting the current building regulations, designed to replace conventional building materials with wood. This “wood approach” for test of concept case study, is chosen due to the increasing interest in wood construction. The development and calibration of a prospective model for different building material consumptions will further illuminate the connection between the to-be generated emissions and the marginal productions of the materials in question, under specific sets of societal development scenarios.