Rumor model on social networks contemplating self-awareness and saturated transmission rate

Abstract

The propagation of rumors indisputably inflicts profound negative impacts on society and individuals. This article introduces a new unaware ignorants-aware ignorants-spreaders-recovereds $ (2ISR) $ rumor spreading model that combines individual vigilance self-awareness with nonlinear spreading rate. Initially, the positivity of the system solutions and the existence of its positive invariant set are rigorously proved, and the rumor propagation threshold is solved using the next-generation matrix method. Next, a comprehensive analysis is conducted on the existence of equilibrium points of the system and the occurrence of backward bifurcation. Afterward, the stability of the system is validated at both the rumor-free equilibrium and the rumor equilibrium, employing the Jacobian matrix approach as well as the Lyapunov stability theory. To enhance the efficacy of rumor propagation management, a targeted optimal control strategy is formulated, drawing upon the Pontryagin's Maximum principle as a guiding framework. Finally, through sensitivity analyses, numerical simulations, and tests of real cases, we verify the reliability of the theoretical results and further consolidate the solid foundation of the above theoretical arguments.

Keywords

• rumor propagation
• backward bifurcation
• stability
• optimal control