Multiscale, mechanistic model of Rheumatoid Arthritis to enable decision making in late stage drug development

Abstract

Abstract Rheumatoid Arthritis (RA) is a chronic autoimmune inflammatory disease that affects about 0.1% to 2% of the population worldwide. Despite the development of several novel therapies, there is only limited benefit for many patients. Thus, there is room for new approaches to improve response to therapy, including designing better trials e.g., by identifying subpopulations that can benefit from specific classes of therapy and enabling reverse translation by analyzing completed clinical trials. We have developed an open-source, mechanistic multi-scale model of RA, which captures the interactions of key immune cells and mediators in an inflamed joint. The model consists of a treatment-naive Virtual Population (Vpop) that responds appropriately (i.e. as reported in clinical trials) to standard-of-care treatment options—Methotrexate (MTX) and Adalimumab (ADA, anti-TNF-α) and an MTX inadequate responder sub-population that responds appropriately to Tocilizumab (TCZ, anti-IL-6R) therapy. The clinical read-outs of interest are the American College of Rheumatology score (ACR score) and Disease Activity Score (DAS28-CRP), which is modeled to be dependent on the physiological variables in the model. Further, we have validated the Vpop by predicting the therapy response of TCZ on ADA Non-responders. This paper aims to share our approach, equations, and code to enable community evaluation and greater adoption of mechanistic models in drug development for autoimmune diseases.