Surface temperature change amplifies social inequality in heat exposure? Evidence from Shanghai, China

Abstract

Heat-related environmental justice has gained increasing attention, with many studies focusing on social inequalities in exposure to extreme surface temperatures. However, changes in land surface temperature (LST) also contribute to residents’ thermal discomfort, underscoring the need to explore inequalities in exposure to these changes. This study addresses this gap by analyzing spatial and social disparities in exposure to both LST changes and summer LST in Shanghai. We employed a boosted regression tree model to quantify LST changes, offering better predictive performance than traditional linear regression, and used geographically weighted regression with data from China's sixth population census to assess the city-wide and local scale inequality differences in exposure to LST changes and summer LST. Our findings reveal that 57.83 % of Shanghai's subdistricts experienced above-average LST changes and summer LST. Specific groups—males (22.17 %), children (22.61 %), the elderly (13.04 %), and residents in older housing (60.87 %)—were disproportionately exposed to local-scale LST changes. In contrast, those employed in agriculture, forestry, and fisheries faced consistently lower exposure. Furthermore, exposure to LST changes was 3.47 % higher among the elderly and 28.26 % higher for residents in older housing compared to exposure based on summer LST alone. To mitigate these inequalities, we recommend increasing water coverage and green roofs, enhancing green infrastructure in aging neighborhoods, and providing financial subsidies for outdoor workers. These findings emphasize the importance of addressing social inequalities in exposure to temperature changes to enhance urban resilience and promote sustainable urban planning in the face of climate change.

Keywords

• Heat exposure
• Surface temperature change
• Warming sensitivity index
• Social inequities
• Geographically weighted regression