Redai dili (Nov 2024)
Characterization and Grouping Analysis of Economic Resilience of County-Level Cities in Jiangsu Province from the Perspective of Complex Adaptive Systems
Abstract
Against the backdrop of cyclical fluctuations in the global economy, significant attention has been devoted to the resilience of urban economic systems in response to external shocks. Current academic understanding of the characteristics and primary types of urban economic resilience remains limited, with research in this area still at a preliminary stage. An in-depth analysis of the characteristics and patterns of economic resilience within urban systems could not only improve the understanding of urban economic resilience but also provide differentiated case studies for cities aiming to withstand future global financial crises. Based on this premise, Complex Adaptive Systems (CAS) theory is employed to analyze the potential factors influencing urban economic resilience. This study uses 54 county-level units in Jiangsu Province as empirical subjects, examining their economic resilience characteristics in response to the 2008 financial crisis across two dimensions: resistance and resilience. The study further analyzes five highly explanatory influencing factors to perform a grouping analysis of economic resilience among Jiangsu counties. The findings reveal that: 1) during the financial crisis, the level of impact across Jiangsu's county areas displayed a spatial pattern of "high in the south and low in the north;" 2) the agglomeration of enterprise entities and industrial diversity during the recovery period had a positive effect on county-level economic resilience; 3) the impact of foreign trade intensity on economic resilience varied across cities and stages, reflecting a dual role; 4) there exist two and five pathways to achieve high economic resilience during resistance and recovery periods, respectively, with close spatial proximity, industrial diversification, core industry agglomeration, and balanced trade flows emerging as critical elements for enhancing economic resilience. This study identifies a potential adaptive path for urban economic resilience: to counteract recessionary forces and stabilize fundamentals by developing sectors less impacted by shocks during the resistance period. During the recovery phase, diversifying industrial sectors can foster new industry strengths, reposition the urban economy, and enable dynamic structural adjustments to promote recovery and create new economic development.
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