Acta Biomedica Scientifica (May 2013)
METHODOLOGICAL BASIS OF MATHEMATICAL MODELING OF DEMOGRAPHIC DYNAMICS AND OF STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF TIME SERIES OF DATA ACCOUNTING THE STATE OF HEALTH AND QUALITY OF LIFE OF POPULATION
Abstract
Methodology of polysystem analysis provides interesting possibilities for the development of evidence-based medicine and the formation of complex knowledge on the health. The peculiarity of the methodology is multi-faceted and through description of objects by means of various system axiomatic theories that organize the information by the generation of new knowledge from a set of basic concepts and laws. Various concepts related to the concept of health are considered as interpreting the way of life in different through system-theoretical constructions. The models that reflect the idea of the level, quality, style, way and standard of life of the population are proposed. The interrelations of these concepts and models are shown. Indices of the background mortality and the public health using data on the dynamics of the population in the Irkutsk region are calculated. Models of their non-linear dependence on the specific GRP per capita are made. The quality of life is revealed as the concept of "utility", reflecting the performance, vitality and feasibility of the individual in society. The utility is regarded as an analogue of the free energy and the function of partial potentials of the system and its environment according to the Euler equation. The biological and background mortality is described on the basis of the equations of the flow of events with the source. The background mortality is used to calculate an indicator of quality of life. Itsfluctuations are calculated by comparing with the data of year 1988 using functions by the Gompertz - Makeham. Indicator values were compared with values of potentials of economic development in the region and its ratios with help of the non-linear functions that satisfy the equation of utility with deviating variables. The significant relation the quality of life and poverty rate (percentage of population with incomes below the subsistence minimum) with value of the gross regional product per capita is demonstrated. The proposed system of concepts and models allows us to find new methods for calculating quality and level of life, solving direct and inverse problems of modeling.
