Comparing Different Modelling Strategies for the Estimation of Climate Change Effects on Urban Pluvial Flooding

Abstract

In this paper, two different strategies are presented that allow for the assessment of the effects of climate change on urban pluvial flooding, in order to understand potentialities and limitations, advantages and drawbacks. The two strategies are hereby defined as “top-down” and “bottom-up”, according to the relative position of climate change modelling with respect to flood modelling (upstream for top-down, downstream for bottom-up). To provide a practical example, the two strategies are applied to a case study located in Naples, Italy. However, they can be successfully extended for the assessment of any potential impact of climate change in any location.

Keywords

• climate change
• impact modelling
• urban flooding