Monetary Fiscal Contributions to Households and Pension Fund Withdrawals during the COVID-19 Pandemic: An Approximation of Their Impact on Construction Labor Supply in Chile

Abstract

We show statistical evidence that pension fund withdrawals and the Emergency Family Income (EFI) increased the likelihood that a laid off construction worker would reject a proposal for a formal employment contract. This favors the hypothesis that pension fund withdrawals and government subsidies related to the health crisis have, to some extent, contributed to the shortage of formal labor in the construction sector. Based on estimations of the logit model, we found that rejection probability increased with work experience (approximated by the worker’s age). For example, the probability of not accepting a formal contract for a highly experienced worker, who withdrew funds from their mandatory private Pension Fund Administrator and received the EFI, increased by 28%. The figure is approximately 2.5 times the rejection probability of a worker with the same experience but without having received this additional income.

Keywords

• pension funds
• emergency family income
• policy decision-making
• construction activity
• logit model
• Chile