Evolutionary-Game-Theory-Based Epidemiological Model for Prediction of Infections with Application to Demand Forecasting in Pharmaceutical Inventory Management Problems

Abstract

Pharmaceuticals play a critical role in the eradication of infectious diseases. Effective pharmaceutical inventory management is important for controlling epidemics since medical resources such as pharmaceuticals, medical staff, and hospitals are limited. In this study, a novel epidemiological model is proposed to evaluate the resource requirements for pharmaceuticals and is applied to analyze different pharmaceutical inventory management strategies. We formulate the relationship between the number of infected individuals and the risk of infection to account for virus mutation. Evolutionary game theory is integrated into an epidemiological model to represent human behavioral choices. The proposed model can be developed to forecast the demand for pharmaceuticals and analyze how human behavior affects the demand of pharmaceuticals. This study found that making people aware of the risk of disease has a positive impact on both reducing the number of infections and managing the pharmaceutical inventory. The main contribution of this study is to enhance areas of research in pharmaceutical inventory management. This study revealed that the correct recognition of the risk of disease leads to appropriate pharmaceutical management. There are a few studies on the application of infectious disease models to inventory control problems. This study provides clues toward proper pharmaceutical management.

Keywords

• inventory management
• SEIR model
• evolutionary game theory