Supervised Methods for Modeling Spatiotemporal Glacier Variations by Quantification of the Area and Terminus of Mountain Glaciers Using Remote Sensing

Abstract

Glaciers are important indictors of climate change as changes in glaciers physical features such as their area is in response to measurable evidence of fluctuating climate factors such as temperature, precipitation, and CO2. Although a general retreat of mountain glacier systems has been identified in relation to centennial trends toward warmer temperatures, there is the potential to extract a great deal more information regarding regional variations in climate from the mapping of the time history of the terminus position or surface area of the glaciers. The remote nature of glaciers renders direct measurement impractical on anything other than a local scale. Considering the sheer number of mountain glaciers around the globe, ground measurements of terminus position are only available for a small percentage of glaciers and ground measurements of glacier area are rare. In this project, changes in the terminal point and area of Franz Josef and Gorner glaciers were quantified in response to climate factors using satellite imagery taken by Landsat at regular intervals. Two supervised learning methods including a parametric method (multiple regression) and a nonparametric method (generalized additive model) were implemented to identify climate factors that impact glacier changes. Local temperature, CO2, and precipitation were identified as significant factors for predicting changes in both Franz Josef and Gorner glaciers. Spatiotemporal quantification of glacier change is an essential task to model glacier variations in response to global and local climate factors. This work provided valuable insights on quantification of surface area of glaciers using satellite imagery with potential implementation of a generic approach.

Keywords

• mountain glaciers
• supervised learning
• generalized additive models
• cryosphere
• Landsat satellite imagery
• climate change