Development of the Global to Mesoscale Air Quality Forecast and Analysis System (GMAF) and Its Application to PM_2.5 Forecast in Korea

Abstract

This paper presents the development of the global to mesoscale air quality forecast and analysis system (GMAF) and its application to particulate matter under 2.5 μm (PM2.5) forecast in Korea. The GMAF combined a mesoscale model with a global data assimilation system by the grid nudging based four-dimensional data assimilation (FDDA). The grid nudging based FDDA developed for weather forecast and analysis was extended to air quality forecast and analysis for the first time as an alternative to data assimilation of surface monitoring data. The below cloud scavenging module and the secondary organic formation module of the community multiscale air quality model (CMAQ) were modified and subsequently verified by comparing with the PM speciation observation from the PM supersite. The observation data collected from the criteria air pollutant monitoring networks in Korea were used to evaluate forecast performance of GMAF for the year of 2016. The GMAF showed good performance in forecasting the daily mean PM2.5 concentrations at Seoul; the correlation coefficient between the observed and forecasted PM2.5 concentrations was 0.78; the normalized mean error was 25%; the probability of detection for the events exceeding the national PM2.5 standard was 0.81 whereas the false alarm rate was only 0.38. Both the hybrid bias correction technique and the Kalman filter bias adjustment technique were implemented into the GMAF as postprocessors. For the continuous and the categorical performance metrics examined, the Kalman filter bias adjustment technique performed better than the hybrid bias correction technique.

Keywords

• wet scavenging
• grid nudging
• nitrate evaporation loss
• bias adjustment
• CMAQ-AERO7