Time-varying effect of drunk driving regulations on road traffic mortality in Guangzhou, China: an interrupted time-series analysis

Abstract

Abstract Background China has introduced a series of stricter policies to criminalize drunk driving and increase penalties since May 2011. However, there is no previous study examining the time-varying impacts of drunk driving regulations on road traffic fatalities based on daily data. Methods We collected 6536 individual data of road traffic deaths (RTDs) in Guangzhou from 2008 to 2018. The quasi-Poisson regression models with an inclusion of the intervention variable and the interaction of intervention variable and a function of time were used to quantify the time-varying effects of these regulations. Results During the 11-year study period, the number of population and motor vehicles showed a steady upward trend. However, the population- and motor vehicles- standardized RTDs rose steadily before May 2011, the criminalizing drunk driving intervention was implemented and gradually declined after that. The new drunk driving intervention were associated with an average risk reduction of RTDs (ER = -9.01, 95% eCI: − 10.05% to − 7.62%) during the 7.7 years after May 2011. On average, 75.82 (95% eCI, 54.06 to 92.04) RTDs per 1 million population annually were prevented due to the drunk driving intervention. Conclusion These findings would provide important implications for the development of integrated intervention measures in China and other countries attempting to reduce traffic fatalities by stricter regulations on drunk driving.

Keywords

• Road traffic deaths
• Drunk driving regulations
• China
• Interrupted time-series analysis
• Quasi-Poisson regression model