Analyzing and forecasting poultry meat production and export volumes in Thailand: a time series approach

Abstract

Amidst global food security challenges driven by population growth and economic fluctuations, the accurate prediction of food production has become increasingly important. Given Thailand’s position among the world’s top 10 poultry meat producers and exporters, accurate forecasting of these figures is essential for effective planning. This study aims to analyze the trends and seasonal patterns and forecast the poultry meat production and export volumes using various time series models. The data, which included poultry meat production in Thailand and its export volume from 2017 to 2023, was analyzed using time series models including SARIMA, NNAR, ETS, TBATS, STL and THETA. Forecast models were constructed in this study, and their predictive performances were evaluated and compared across the different models. The results reveal consistent upward trends in poultry meat production and export volumes. These trends are complemented by seasonal patterns, with production volume peaking in March and export volume exhibiting a similar trajectory. High export volume periods are observed annually between September and November. In terms of predictive accuracy, the SARIMA model outperformed other models in forecasting poultry meat production volume, while the THETA model excels in predicting export volume. This study applied time series models to forecast poultry meat production and export volumes, highlighting their practical application and significance in this context, thereby providing essential information for effective planning by relevant authorities and stakeholders.

Keywords

• Export
• forecasting
• poultry meat
• production
• time series
• M. Luisa Escudero-Gilete, Academic Editor, Food Colour and Quality Laboratory, Dpt. Nutrition and Food Science, Universidad de Sevilla, Sevilla, Spain