A pilot study of implication of machine learning for relapse prediction after allogeneic stem cell transplantation in adults with Ph-positive acute lymphoblastic leukemia

Abstract

Abstract The posttransplant relapse in Ph-positive ALL increases the risk of death. There is an unmet need for instruments to predict the risk of relapse and plan prophylaxis. In this study, we analyzed posttransplant data by machine learning algorithms. Seventy-four Ph-positive ALL patients with a median age of 30 (range 18–55) years who previously underwent allo-HSCT, were retrospectively enrolled. Ninety-three percent of patients received prophylactic/preemptive TKIs after allo-HSCT. The values of the BCR::ABL1 level at serial assessments and over variables were collected in specified intervals after allo-HSCT. They were used to model relapse risk with several machine-learning approaches. GBM proved superior to the other algorithms and provided a maximal AUC score of 0.91. BCR::ABL1 level before and after allo-HSCT, prediction moment, and chronic GvHD had the highest value in the model. It was shown that after Day + 100, both error rates do not exceed 22%, while before D + 100, the model fails to make accurate predictions. As a result, we determined BCR::ABL1 levels at which the relapse risk remains low. Thus, the current BCR::ABL1 level less than 0.06% in patients with chronic GvHD predicts low risk of relapse. At the same time, patients without chronic GVHD after allo-HSCT should be classified as high risk with any level of BCR::ABL1. GBM model with posttransplant laboratory values of BCR::ABL1 provides a high prediction of relapse after allo-HSCT in the era of TKIs prophylaxis. Validation of this approach is warranted.