Unexpected Management Choices When Accounting for Uncertainty in Ecosystem Service Tradeoff Analyses

Abstract

Abstract Resource management and conservation increasingly focus on ecosystem service provisioning and potential tradeoffs among services under different management actions. Application of bioeconomic approaches to tradeoffs assessment is touted as a way to find win‐win outcomes or avoid unnecessary stakeholder conflict. Yet, nearly all assessments to date have ignored inherent uncertainties in the provision and valuation of services. We incorporate uncertainty into the ecosystem services analytical framework and show how such inclusion improves optimal decision making. In particular, we show: (1) “suboptimal” solutions can become optimal when uncertainties are accounted for; (2) uncertainty paradoxically makes stakeholders value conservation despite their lack of preference for it; and (3) substantial losses or missed gains in ecosystem service provisioning can be incurred when uncertainty is ignored. Our results highlight the urgency of accounting for uncertainties in ecosystem services in tradeoff assessments given the widespread use of this approach by government agencies and conservation organizations.

Keywords

• Bioeconomic model
• decision making
• ecosystem‐based management
• ecosystem services
• multisector planning
• second best theory