Climatic variability and its association with dengue in the Coronel Portillo province, Peru

Abstract

Introduction: numerous investigations have studied the link between climate variability and its effects on the epidemiology of dengue, highlighting the complex nature of this relationship due to the great adaptability of the Aedes vector. Studying climate variability as part of a comprehensive analysis of dengue epidemiology is essential to evaluate its impact on the recurring epidemics that occur. Objective: the present study sought to determine if there is an association between dengue cases reported from 2014 to 2023 in the province of Coronel Portillo, Peru, and climate variability, in the period January 2021 to December 2023. Method: the study was descriptive, reflective and analytical over time. The sources of information were obtained from the Regional Health Directorate of Ucayali and the National Meteorology and Hydrology Service of Peru. Statistical tests of cross-correlation between variables were carried out. Results: temperature showed a moderate positive correlation with reported dengue cases (0.594; P=0.042), as did precipitation (0.678; P=0.015). Regarding its correlation with the incidence of cases, it was 0.619 and P=0.032; and 0.675 and P=0.016, respectively. Humidity showed a very low correlation (0.111; P=0.732); Its correlation with the incidence of cases was 0.106 and P=0.744. The incidence of dengue cases presented a close connection with the reported dengue cases (0.998; P=0.00). Conclusions: the results reveal statistically significant correlations that suggest that the increase in dengue cases caused by the Aedes vector, in the province of Coronel Portillo, Peru, is associated with the climate variability that occurred from 2014 to 2023.

Keywords

• cambio climático
• variabilidad climática
• dengue
• precipitación
• temperatura
• perú