Predictors of short- and long-term mortality in critically ill, older adults admitted to the emergency department: an observational study

Abstract

Abstract Background In the future, we can expect an increase in older patients in emergency departments (ED) and acute wards. The main purpose of this study was to identify predictors of short- and long-term mortality in the ED and at hospital discharge. Methods This is a retrospective, observational, single-center, cohort study, involving critically ill older adults, recruited consecutively in an ED. The primary outcome was mortality. All patients were followed for 6.5–7.5 years. The Cox proportional hazards model was used. Results Regarding all critically ill patients aged ≥ 70 years and identified in the ED (n = 402), there was a significant association between mortality at 30 days after ED admission and unconsciousness on admission (HR 3.14, 95% CI 2.09–4.74), hypoxia on admission (HR 2.51, 95% CI 1.69–3.74) and age (HR 1.06 per year, 95% CI 1.03–1.09), (all p 2 (HR 1.90, 95% CI 1.46–2.48), length of stay (LOS) > 7 days (HR 1.72, 95% CI 1.32–2.23), discharge diagnosis of pneumonia (HR 1.65, 95% CI 1.24–2.21) and age (HR 1.08 per year, 95% CI 1.05–1.10), (all p 2, LOS > 7 days, hypoxia on admission, discharge diagnosis of pneumonia and age. The following factors were predictive of mortality at 30 days after ED admission: unconsciousness on admission, hypoxia and age. These data might be clinically relevant when it comes to individualized care planning, which should take account of risk prediction and estimated prognosis.

Keywords

• Older adults
• Emergency department
• Predictors
• Mortality