Hospital capacities and response to COVID-19 pandemic surges in Iran: A quantitative model-based study

Abstract

The coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic resulted in serious limitations for healthcare systems, and this study aimed to investigate the impact of COVID-19 surges on in-patient care capacities in Iran employing the Adaptt tool. Using a cross-sectional study design, our study was carried out in the year 2022 using 1-year epidemiologic (polymerase chain reaction-positive COVID-19 cases) and hospital capacity (beds and human resource) data from the official declaration of the pandemic in Iran in February 2020. We populated several scenarios, and in each scenario, a proportion of hospital capacity is assumed to be allocated to the COVID-19 patients. In most of the scenarios, no significant shortage was found in terms of bed and human resources. However, considering the need for treatment of non- COVID-19 cases, in one of the scenarios, it can be observed that during the peak period, the number of required and available specialists is exactly equal, which was a challenge during surge periods and resulted in extra hours of working and workforce burnout in hospitals. The shortage of intensive care unit beds and doctors specializing in internal medicine, infectious diseases, and anesthesiology also requires more attention for planning during the peak days of COVID-19.

Keywords

• covid-19
• forecasting
• hospitalization
• pandemics
• policymaking
• scenario analysis