Establishment and validation of a risk prediction model for delayed neurocognitive recovery associated with cerebral oxygen saturation monitoring

Abstract

Abstract Background Delayed neurocognitive recovery (DNR) is a common complication in patients undergoing laparoscopic surgery, and there are currently no effective therapies. It is vital to provide a reliable basis for clinical prediction. This study tried to analyse the risk factors for DNR in patients undergoing laparoscopic colorectal surgery and to establish a risk prediction model. Methods A retrospective analysis of the clinical data and DNR status of patients undergoing laparoscopic colorectal surgery at Xiangya Hospital of Central South University from March 2018 to July 2020 was conducted. Logistic regression was performed to analyse the related risk factors for DNR post-operatively, and the predictive model of DNR post-operatively was constructed and validated internally. Patients who underwent laparoscopic colorectal surgery between January and July 2021 were also selected for external validation of the predictive model, to ultimately investigate the risk factors for DNR in patients undergoing laparoscopic colorectal surgery. Results The incidence of DNR in patients undergoing laparoscopic colorectal surgery was 15.2% (31/204). The maximum variability of cerebral oxygen, age, education, and pre-existing diabetes was related to the incidence of DNR (p < 0.05). The risk prediction model of DNR after laparoscopic colorectal surgery was established. The internal and external validation showed that the discrimination was good (the AUCs were 0.751 and 0.694, respectively). Conclusions The risk prediction model of DNR related to cerebral oxygen saturation monitoring shows good predictive performance and clinical value, providing a basis for postoperative DNR prevention.

Keywords

• Delayed neurocognitive recovery
• Laparoscopic surgery
• Predictive model
• Cerebral oxygen saturation
• Postoperative