The association between the dynamics of COVID-19, related measures, and daytime population in Tokyo

Abstract

Abstract In Japan, a novel coronavirus has been prevalent since January 2020. The Japanese and local governments have implemented various measures, including declaring a state of emergency, according to the epidemic situation in each region. This study estimated the effective reproduction number (R t) using the number of confirmed positive cases and positivity rates in Tokyo and examined the association between R t and the rate of increase/decrease in the number of people across 12 sites. In Tokyo, there were five waves in which R t was persistently estimated as approximately 1.0. The fourth and fifth waves started under the declaration of the state of emergency and coincided with an increase in the number of people. However, the contribution of the number of people to R t was inconsistent, even when the number of people was of the same magnitude. A possible reason for this is difference in the countermeasures content, as the impact of vaccination was considered to be minor at the time. Where vaccination is insufficient, the wave is terminated by controlling the number of people leaving their homes. It is suggested that infection could be controlled more efficiently, depending on the content of the countermeasures.