Adapting viticulture to climate change in the Mediterranean region: Evaluations accounting for spatial differences in the producers-climate interactions

Abstract

Effective adaptation of viticulture to climate change requires impact and response scenarios. Although climate and production impact scenarios are based on the evaluation of a spatially heterogeneous system, conventional response scenarios do not take into account the variation of the producers-climate interactions. These interactions are often extremely heterogeneous and unevenly distributed in space, leading to errors in the needs and adaptation plans, especially in large areas. Here we develop a novel framework for adaptation that considers the heterogeneity of the responses given by producers to climate, and applies the concept to adaptation of viticulture to climate change in the Mediterranean region. We use future climate scenarios at 0.5 ∘ resolution to estimate the adaptation of viticulture by the end of the 21st century. Results suggest that most of the Mediterranean region may urgently need adaptation plans, leading to potential opportunities. By incorporating spatially explicit information on the diversity of viticulture systems, management practices, and climate vulnerability, this approach may contribute to adaptation policy.