Development of a Predictive Model for Agave Prices Employing Environmental, Economic, and Social Factors: Towards a Planned Supply Chain for Agave-Tequila Industry

Abstract

The interest of consumers to acquire Tequila has caused an increase in its sales. As demand increases, the Tequila industry must obtain its raw material at a constant rate and agave farmers must be prepared to satisfy this supply chain. Because of this, modernization of the strategies used to ensure a planned, scheduled, timely, and predictable production will allow farmers to maintain the current demand for Tequila. This has been evidenced in official historical records from 1999 to 2020 where there is a fluctuation in the price of agave due to supply and demand. Given this scenario, this research shows the development of a multivariable predictive mathematical model that will permit the agave–Tequila production chain to work based on a smart implementation of planned actions to guarantee the agave supply to the Tequila industry. The proposed model has a goodness of fit (R = 0.8676; R¯2 = 0.8609; F(1,20) = 131.01 > F0.01 (1,20) = 8.10) and demonstrates the impact on agave prices is due to several factors: Tequila exports (α = 0.50) > agave plants harvested “jima” (α = 0.44) > dollar exchange (α = 0.43) > Tequila production (α = 0.06) > annual accumulated precipitation (α = 0.05). Nevertheless, the price forecast can be influenced by climate change or economic crises that affect the supply chain. In conclusion, a prediction of agave price stabilization for five years is shown where authorized producers can evaluate future scenarios so that the agave supply chain can be guaranteed for Tequila production, facilitating the decision making regarding its raw material.

Keywords

• Tequila production
• predictive model
• agave planification and harvest
• guarantee supply chain of agave-Tequila industry