Mathematical Modeling and Methodology for Assessing the Pace of Socio-Economic Development of the Russian Federation

Abstract

The article develops the author’s methodology for assessing the rates of socio-economic development and their forecasting in the Russian Federation, which makes it possible to consider factors with heterogeneous metrics. For this, an index analysis of thirty-two indicators divided into seven macro-regional blocks (income, labor, business, ecology, society, prospects, finance) was carried out, integral indicators were calculated that characterize their changes and the pace of socio-economic development of the Russian Federation was determined. Further, using the means of mathematical modeling, a multifactorial mathematical model was built and tested in real-time, which makes it possible to obtain a high-quality predicted result. Based on the forecasts obtained, it can be stated that it is necessary to adjust certain indicators that actively influence the pace of development, which is a mathematical justification for making managerial decisions when developing strategies and programs related to socio-economic progress in the Russian Federation.

Keywords

• mathematical modeling
• forecasting
• socio-economic development
• assessment methodology
• integral indicator