Assessment of the Impact of the Motor Transport Complex on the Ecological and Demographic Situation in the Region

Abstract

The aim of this work is to build a mathematical model of the dynamics and mutual influence of the population and environmental factors – pollution of the atmosphere and surface water bodies – on an urbanized territory. The paper proposes a simulation model of dynamics and interaction of external and internal directions in biosphere-compatible city activities. The external direction of city’s activities is removal of resources from the Biosphere and emission of waste polluting water, air and soil into it. The internal direction is the impact on the population: environmental state, health assessment, life expectancy, human potential. Motor transport and objects of the road infrastructure bring the main volume of all waste and emissions polluting the urban environment. The method of forecasting the ecological and demographic situation of an urbanized territory is constructed using a relatively simple, non-linear, with variable coefficients, mathematical model that reflects the interaction of several subsystems: population, pollution of the atmosphere and water bodies.