Modeling the dynamics of anti-microbial resistant cholera infection with reinfection

Abstract

Cholera continues to pose a significant global public health challenge. The occurrence of severe weather events, including floods, droughts, and cyclones, has led to a surge in new cholera outbreaks and exacerbated both epidemic and endemic conditions in numerous countries. We propose a ten-state ordinary differential system of equations to model antimicrobial resistant cholera infections, considering both direct and indirect transmission pathways. Antimicrobial resistant cholera infection is considered to occur in some infected individuals receiving antibiotic treatment. The model integrates key interventions such as vaccination, screening, and treatment to curb cholera spread. Loss of infection-acquired immunity for the recovered individuals is also considered in the model. A threshold quantity referred to as the model reproduction number Rc is computed and stability analysis of equilibrium points for the full model and submodels is performed. Sensitivity analysis is performed and specific measures to reduce parameters associated with cholera transmission and enhance parameters related to control measures are suggested. Numerical simulations are carried out to support theoretical findings. The results obtained places a significant emphasis on antimicrobial resistance and its impact on cholera control. The importance of minimizing antimicrobial resistance through targeted interventions is highlighted. Therefore, there is an urgent need to implement policies aimed at mitigating the spread of antimicrobial resistance.

Keywords

• Cholera
• Anti-microbial resistance
• Reproduction number
• Stability analysis
• Numerical simulations