AMOC decline and recovery in a warmer climate

Paulo Nobre; Sandro F. Veiga; Emanuel Giarolla; André L. Marquez; Manoel B. da Silva; Vinícius B. Capistrano; Marta Malagutti; Julio P. R. Fernandez; Helena C. Soares; Marcus J. Bottino; Paulo Y. Kubota; Silvio N. Figueroa; José P. Bonatti; Gilvan Sampaio; Fernanda Casagrande; Mabel C. Costa; Carlos A. Nobre

doi:10.1038/s41598-023-43143-5

Scientific Reports (Sep 2023)

AMOC decline and recovery in a warmer climate

Paulo Nobre,
Sandro F. Veiga,
Emanuel Giarolla,
André L. Marquez,
Manoel B. da Silva,
Vinícius B. Capistrano,
Marta Malagutti,
Julio P. R. Fernandez,
Helena C. Soares,
Marcus J. Bottino,
Paulo Y. Kubota,
Silvio N. Figueroa,
José P. Bonatti,
Gilvan Sampaio,
Fernanda Casagrande,
Mabel C. Costa,
Carlos A. Nobre

Affiliations

Paulo Nobre: Center for Weather Forecasting and Climate Studies (CPTEC), National Institute for Space Research (INPE)
Sandro F. Veiga: School of Atmospheric Sciences and Key Laboratory of Mesoscale Severe Weather/Ministry of Education, Nanjing University
Emanuel Giarolla: Center for Weather Forecasting and Climate Studies (CPTEC), National Institute for Space Research (INPE)
André L. Marquez: Center for Weather Forecasting and Climate Studies (CPTEC), National Institute for Space Research (INPE)
Manoel B. da Silva: Center for Weather Forecasting and Climate Studies (CPTEC), National Institute for Space Research (INPE)
Vinícius B. Capistrano: Institute of Physics, Federal University of Mato Grosso do Sul (UFMS)
Marta Malagutti: Center for Weather Forecasting and Climate Studies (CPTEC), National Institute for Space Research (INPE)
Julio P. R. Fernandez: Center for Weather Forecasting and Climate Studies (CPTEC), National Institute for Space Research (INPE)
Helena C. Soares: Center for Weather Forecasting and Climate Studies (CPTEC), National Institute for Space Research (INPE)
Marcus J. Bottino: Center for Weather Forecasting and Climate Studies (CPTEC), National Institute for Space Research (INPE)
Paulo Y. Kubota: Center for Weather Forecasting and Climate Studies (CPTEC), National Institute for Space Research (INPE)
Silvio N. Figueroa: Center for Weather Forecasting and Climate Studies (CPTEC), National Institute for Space Research (INPE)
José P. Bonatti: Center for Weather Forecasting and Climate Studies (CPTEC), National Institute for Space Research (INPE)
Gilvan Sampaio: Center for Weather Forecasting and Climate Studies (CPTEC), National Institute for Space Research (INPE)
Fernanda Casagrande: Center for Weather Forecasting and Climate Studies (CPTEC), National Institute for Space Research (INPE)
Mabel C. Costa: Center for Weather Forecasting and Climate Studies (CPTEC), National Institute for Space Research (INPE)
Carlos A. Nobre: Institute for Advanced Studies, University of São Paulo

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-023-43143-5
Journal volume & issue: Vol. 13, no. 1
pp. 1 – 12

Abstract

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Abstract This study presents novel insight into the mechanisms of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) reduction and its recovery under a warmer climate scenario. An one-thousand-year-long numerical simulation of a global coupled ocean–ice–atmosphere climate model, subjected to a stationary atmospheric radiative forcing, depict a coherent picture of the Arctic sea ice melting as a trigger for the initial AMOC reduction, along with decreases in the northward fluxes of salt and heat. Further atmospheric-driven ocean processes contribute to an erosion of the stable stratification of the fresher, yet colder waters in the surface layers of the North Atlantic, contributing to the recovery of a permanently altered AMOC.

Published in Scientific Reports

ISSN: 2045-2322 (Online)
Publisher: Nature Portfolio
Country of publisher: United Kingdom
LCC subjects: Medicine; Science
Website: https://www.nature.com/srep/

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