Prediction of magnetic storm events using the <i>D_st</i> index

Abstract

This paper provides a method to predict magnetic storm events based on the time series of the Dst index over the period 1981-2002. This method is based on the multiple scaling of the measure representation of the Dst time series. This measure is modeled as a recurrent iterated function system, which leads to a method to predict storm patterns included in its attractor. Numerical results are provided to evaluate the performance of the method in outside-sample forecasts.