Understanding the Influencers of Freight Rate Forecasting Accuracy: A Meta-Regression Analysis of the Literature

Abstract

Forecasting freight rates has been a topic of discussion for decades. Even though freight rate forecasting is regarded as a critical research topic in shipping, the literature lacks a systematic empirical account of how to obtain more reliable and accurate freight rate forecasts. This study uses meta-regression to synthesize the literature on freight rate forecasting and to test various accuracy influencers. The study confirms that the accuracy of the freight rate forecasts depends significantly on data frequency, forecasting horizon and method, market type, sample size, and the inclusion of explanatory variables.

Keywords

• meta-analysis
• freight rate
• forecasting
• accuracy
• shipping