Response to the future climate change effect of two leopard geckos’ distribution (Sauria: Eublepharidae) in Iran

Abstract

This study investigates the climate change effects on the distribution range of two species of nocturnal lizards in Iran. Using climate change scenarios recently (2021) published by IPCC, two species of leopard geckos that are distributed in the northeast (Eublepharis turcmenicus) and southwest (Eublepharis angramainyu) of Iran were selected and analyzed because they are only members of the family Eublepharidae in Iran and under high risk of extinction in the wild. We found that the most important bioclimatic variables that could affect the presence of these species are the minimum temperature in the coldest month of the year and the mean temperature in the wettest season; the Mean Temperature of the Driest Quarter and the Mean Temperature of the Coldest Quarter are the most important variables in future (2070) for E. angramainyu and E. turcmenicus, respectively. These variables are important directly at the beginning and end of the hibernation period of ectotherms such as lizards and can disrupt their life cycle by changing this period. Temperature changes over the next 50 years may not be a significant threat to these two species, as their range will be much wider than the current time, indicating that these species will be able to adapt to new conditions.

Keywords

• Global warming
• Eublepharis
• Conservation biology
• Iranian plateau