Early predicting 30-day mortality in sepsis in MIMIC-III by an artificial neural networks model

Abstract

Abstract Objective Early identifying sepsis patients who had higher risk of poor prognosis was extremely important. The aim of this study was to develop an artificial neural networks (ANN) model for early predicting clinical outcomes in sepsis. Methods This study was a retrospective design. Sepsis patients from the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care-III (MIMIC-III) database were enrolled. A predictive model for predicting 30-day morality in sepsis was performed based on the ANN approach. Results A total of 2874 patients with sepsis were included and 30-day mortality was 29.8%. The study population was categorized into the training set (n = 1698) and validation set (n = 1176) based on the ratio of 6:4. 11 variables which showed significant differences between survivor group and nonsurvivor group in training set were selected for constructing the ANN model. In training set, the predictive performance based on the area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUC) were 0.873 for ANN model, 0.720 for logistic regression, 0.629 for APACHEII score and 0.619 for SOFA score. In validation set, the AUCs of ANN, logistic regression, APAHCEII score, and SOFA score were 0.811, 0.752, 0.607, and 0.628, respectively. Conclusion An ANN model for predicting 30-day mortality in sepsis was performed. Our predictive model can be beneficial for early detection of patients with higher risk of poor prognosis.

Keywords

• Artificial neural networks
• Sepsis
• Mortality
• MIMIC-III