Risk factors associated with COVID-19 infection: a retrospective cohort study based on contacts tracing

Abstract

ABSTRACTThis study aimed to estimate the attack rates, and identify the risk factors of COVID-19 infection. Based on a retrospective cohort study, we investigated 11,580 contacts of COVID-19 cases in Guangdong Province from 10 January to 15 March 2020. All contacts were tested by RT-PCR to detect their infection of SARS-COV-2. Attack rates by characteristics were calculated. Logistic regression was used to estimate the risk factors of infection for COVID-19. A total of 515 of 11,580 contacts were identified to be infected with SARS-COV-2. Compared to young adults aged 20–29 years, the infected risk was higher in children (RR: 2.59, 95%CI: 1.79–3.76), and old people aged 60–69 years (RR: 5.29, 95%CI: 3.76–7.46). Females also had higher infected risk (RR: 1.66, 95%CI: 1.39–2.00). People having close relationship with index cases encountered higher infected risk (RR for spouse: 20.68, 95%CI: 14.28–29.95; RR for non-spouse family members: 9.55, 95%CI: 6.73–13.55; RR for close relatives: 5.90, 95%CI: 4.06–8.59). Moreover, contacts exposed to index case in symptomatic period (RR: 2.15, 95%CI: 1.67–2.79), with critically severe symptoms (RR: 1.61, 95%CI: 1.00–2.57), with symptoms of dizzy (RR: 1.58, 95%CI: 1.08–2.30), myalgia (RR: 1.49, 95%CI: 1.15–1.94), and chill (RR: 1.42, 95%CI: 1.05–1.92) had higher infected risks. Children, old people, females, and family members are susceptible of COVID-19 infection, while index cases in the incubation period had lower contagiousness. Our findings will be helpful for developing targeted prevention and control strategies to combat the worldwide pandemic.

Keywords

• COVID-19
• attack rate
• risk factors
• close contact
• China