Predicting the current and future distributions of Pennisetum alopecuroides (L.) in China under climate change based on the MaxEnt model.

Abstract

Pennisetum alopecuroides (L.), one of the important exotic plants, gives great economic value to animal husbandry in China. In order to study the distribution of Pennisetum alopecuroides (L.) in China and its response to climate change, based on the distribution records of Pennisetum alopecuroides (L.), our study used the Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) model and geographic information system (GIS) methods, combined with environmental factors such as climate and terrain, to predict the potential distribution areas suitable for Pennisetum alopecuroides (L.) under current and future climate scenarios. The results showed that annual precipitation was the most important factor affecting the distribution of Pennisetum alopecuroides (L.). In current climate scenario, the total area of suitable for Pennisetum alopecuroides (L.) growth was about 576.5 km2, accounting for about 60.5% of the total land area of China. Among all the suitable areas, the area of low, middle and high fitness areas accounted for 5.69%, 20.55% and 33.81% of the total area respectively. In future climate scenarios (RCP4.5), the suitable area of Pennisetum alopecuroides (L.) would decrease with climate change, showing a clear trend of northward expansion in China. A concentrated and contiguous distribution region for Pennisetum alopecuroides (L.) would appear in northeast China. The model was tested by the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC), and the average area under the curve of ROC of the training set was 0.985, which was reliable. This work provided an important reference and theoretical basis for the efficient utilization and plant regionalization of Pennisetum alopecuroides (L.) in future.