On the measurement of tasks: does expert data get it right?

Abstract

Abstract Using German survey and expert data on job tasks, this paper explores the presence of omitted-variable bias suspected in conventional task data derived from expert assessment. I show expert task data, which is expressed at the occupation-level, introduces omitted-variable bias in task returns on the order of 26–34%. Motivated by a theoretical framework, I argue this bias results from expert data ignoring individual heterogeneity rather than fundamental differences on the assessment of tasks between experts and workers. My findings have important implications for the interpretation of conventional task models as occupational task returns are overestimated. Moreover, a rigorous comparison of the statistical performance of various models offers guidance for future research regarding choice of task data and construction of task measures.

Keywords

• Expert vs survey task data
• Individual heterogeneity
• Omitted-variable bias