Day‐ahead wind power combination forecasting based on corrected numerical weather prediction and entropy method

Abstract

Abstract To satisfy the grid operation scheduling requirements for wind power forecasting model accuracy, the measured wind speed near the height of the wind turbine hub is added to the wind power combined forecasting model. First, the relationship between the numerical weather prediction wind speed and the measured wind speed at different heights are analysed, and the correlation between each wind speed and the wind power is compared. Second, the random forest algorithm combined with the cumulative contribution rate is used to select several meteorological types of numerical weather prediction data as the input of the long short‐term memory network to predict wind speed. Third, while inputting the meteorological data provided by numerical weather prediction, which is highly related to wind power, the wind power prediction network also uses the predicted wind speed of the upper network as input to predict wind power. Finally, the entropy method is used to dynamically determine the combined weights of each forecasting model and improve the adaptability of the model. Research and analysis using measured data from two wind farms located in northeast China have verified the effectiveness of the method.

Keywords

• Wind energy
• Winds and their effects in the lower atmosphere
• Weather analysis and prediction
• Wind power plants
• Other topics in statistics
• Optimisation techniques