Long-Term Trends of Extreme Climate Indexes in the Southern Part of Siberia in Comparison with Those of Surrounding Regions

Abstract

Siberia, which experienced disastrous heat waves in 2010 and 2012, is one of the regions in which extreme climate events have occurred recently. To compare the long-term trends of extreme climate events in the southern part of Siberia with those of surrounding regions, we calculated 11 extreme climate indexes from observational data for 1950–2019 and analyzed the trends in Siberia and other parts of Russia using statistical techniques, i.e., Welch’s t-test, the Mann–Kendall test, Sen’s slope estimator, and a cluster analysis. We clarified that high-temperature events in March are more frequent in Siberia than in the surrounding areas. However, the increasing trends of high temperatures in Siberia were lower than those in northwestern China and Central Asia. The intensity of heavy precipitation is increasing in Siberia, as it is in the surrounding areas. Compared to the surrounding areas analyzed in previous studies, the trend of heavy precipitation in Siberia has not increased much. In particular, Siberia shows a more remarkable decreasing trend in heavy precipitation during the summer than other regions. The dry trends in the summer, however, do not occur in Siberia as a whole, and the opposite trend of summer precipitation was observed in some areas of Siberia.

Keywords

• climatic extremes
• long-term trend
• southern part of Siberia
• air temperature
• precipitation