A Practical Risk Score for Prediction of Early Readmission after a First Episode of Acute Heart Failure with Preserved Ejection Fraction

Abstract

Background: The first admission for acute heart failure with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF) drastically influences the short-term prognosis. Baseline characteristics may predict repeat hospitalization or death in these patients. Methods: A 103 patient-cohort, admitted for the first acute HFpEF episode, was monitored for six months. Baseline characteristics were recorded and their relation to the primary outcome of heart failure readmission (HFR) and secondary outcome of all-cause mortality was assessed. Results: We identified six independent determinants for HFR: estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) (p = 0.07), hemoglobin (p = 0.04), left ventricle end-diastolic diameter (LVEDD) (p = 0.07), E/e’ ratio (p = 0.004), left ventricle outflow tract velocity-time integral (LVOT VTI) (p = 0.045), and diabetes mellitus (p = 0.06). Three of the variables were used to generate a risk score for HFR: LVEDD, E/e’, LVOT VTI -DEI Score = − 28.763 + 4.558 × log (LVEDD (mm)) + 1.961 × log (E/e’ ratio) + 1.759 × log (LVOT VTI (cm)). Our model predicts a relative amount of 20.50% of HFR during the first 6 months after the first acute hospitalization within the general population with HFpEF with a DEI Score over −0.747. Conclusions: We have identified three echocardiographic parameters (LVEDD, E/e’, and LVOT VTI) that predict HFR following an initial acute HFpEF hospitalization. The prognostic DEI score demonstrated good accuracy.

Keywords

• risk stratification
• left ventricle end-diastolic diameter
• E/e’ ratio
• left ventricle outflow tract velocity-time integral
• hospitalization predictor
• short-term prognosis