STABILITY, BIFURCATIONS AND CHAOS IN UNEMPLOYMENT NON-LINEAR DYNAMICS

Abstract

The traditional analysis of unemployment in relation to real output dynamics is based on some empirical evidences deducted from Okun’s studies. In particular the so called Okun’s Law is expressed in a linear mathematical formulation, which cannot explain the fluctuation of the variables involved. Linearity is an heavy limit for macroeconomic analysis and especially for every economic growth study which would consider the unemployment rate among the endogenous variables. This paper deals with an introductive study about the role of non-linearity in the investigation of unemployment dynamics. The main idea is the existence of a non-linear relation between the unemployment rate and the gap of GDP growth rate from its trend. The macroeconomic motivation of this idea moves from the consideration of two concatenate effects caused by a variation of the unemployment rate on the real output growth rate. These two effects are concatenate because there is a first effect that generates a secondary one on the same variable. When the unemployment rate changes, the first effect is the variation in the level of production in consequence of the variation in the level of such an important factor as labour force; the secondary effect is a consecutive variation in the level of production caused by the variation in the aggregate demand in consequence of the change of the individual disposal income originated by the previous variation of production itself. In this paper the analysis of unemployment dynamics is carried out by the use of the logistic map and the conditions for the existence of bifurcations (cycles) are determined. The study also allows to find the range of variability of some characteristic parameters that might be avoided for not having an absolute unpredictability of unemployment dynamics (deterministic chaos): unpredictability is equivalent to uncontrollability because of the total absence of information about the future value of the variable to be controlled.

Keywords

• Unemployment, Economic growth, Logistic map