The Success of Economic Policies in Russia: Dependence on Crude Oil vs. Export Diversification

Abstract

In the light of numerous debates around Russia’s dependence on crude oil and the necessity to diversify the Russian economy, the present paper investigates how closely federal budget revenues, structure of export basket and GDP growth in Russia are tied up with crude oil prices (POIL) on the one hand and the real effective exchange rate of ruble (REER) on the other. The study covers the period from 2000:Q1 till 2014:Q4 and employs index analysis along with vector error correction model (VECM) based on Johansen co‑integration technique. The calculated REER revealed its significant appreciation, that together with a high share of mineral products in total Russian exports points to Dutch disease presence. The constructed econometric models revealed the existence of long‑run relationships among the analyzed indicators. Post‑estimation tests proved the validity of the VECMs. According to the obtained results, in order to stimulate “non‑oil” exports monetary authorities should depreciate national currency, whilst fiscal burden should be mild towards “non oil” producers. However, the observed dynamics of macroeconomic indicators points to the fact that the Russian economy is still substantially influenced by POIL and this influence is much more stronger than it is exerted by fiscal and monetary regulators. It allows us to conclude that crude oil will continue to play, at least in foreseeable future, a dominant role in further development of the Russian economy.

Keywords

• Russia
• GDP
• fiscal revenues
• crude oil price
• REER
• VECM